AsTra model

Foreign trade module (FOT)

The Foreign Trade Module (FOT) is divided into two parts: trade between the EU29 European countries (INTRA-EU model) and trade between the EU29 European countries and the rest-of-the world (RoW) that is divided into nine regions (EU-RoW model with Oceania, China, East Asia, India, Japan, Latin America, North America, Turkey, Rest-of-the-World). Both models are differentiated into bilateral relationships by country pair by sector. The INTRA-EU trade model depends on three endogenous and one exogenous factor. World GDP growth exerts an exogenous influence on trade. Endogenous influences are provided by: GDP growth of the importing country of each country pair relation, relative change of sector labour productivity between the countries and averaged generalised cost of passenger and freight transport between the countries. The latter is chosen to represent an accessibility indicator for transport between the countries.

The EU-RoW trade model is mainly driven by relative productivity between the European countries and the rest-of-the-world regions. Productivity changes together with GDP growth of the importing RoW-country and world GDP growth drive the export-import relationships between the countries. Since, transport cost and time are not modelled for transport relations outside EU29 transport is not considered in the EU-RoW model. The resulting sector export import flows of the two trade models are fed back into the macroeconomics module as part of final demand and national final use respectively. Secondly, the INTRA-EU model provides the input for international freight generation and distribution within the REM module.

 

TRT Trasporti e Territorio

 

M-Five GmbH

 

Fraunhofer Isi