On 2019, an updated version of the model (ASTRA 2.0) was developed on behalf of DG JRC of the European Commission. The model has new functionalities that make it possible to test different types of policies. ASTRA 2.0 has as well an improved linkage with the network based transport model and is calibrated according 2016 EU Reference Scenario.

On 2013, as part of the “ASSIST project” managed by the European Commission, a dedicated version of the ASTRA model (the ASTRA-EC model) was developed in order to provide an instrument to make strategic transport policy analysis, allowing users to analyse the social impacts of policies together with economic and environmental impacts. The ASTRA-EC model has a guided user interface where several leverages can be set to simulate policy scenarios and output can be read and compared in graphical or tabular format and exported for further analysis.

The following deliverables of the “ASSIST project” provide an overview on the ASTRA-EC model and its functionalities.

Description of the ASTRA-EC model and of the user interface
The deliverable D4.2 of ASSIST outlines the structure and the features of the ASTRA-EC model and of the user interface. Each module is described in its theoretical structure and main linkages, reporting the main conceptual equations. The list of policies available for simulation and their impact in the model is also included.

The ASTRA-EC model user guide
The document is an extract of deliverable D6.1 of ASSIST, describing how to operate with the model through the user interface: reporting a description of the model structure, how to set simulations of policies, reading results and comparing different scenarios.

ASTRA-EC model

The ASTRA model has been applied in several projects in combination with the TRUST network model. With this linkage, on one hand the economic and social dimensions can be added to the impact assessment of transport policy measures simulated in details on a network basis and, on the other hand, the transport impacts of infrastructure projects implemented in details on the network can be taken into account for strategic analysis.

TRUST (TRansport eUropean Simulation Tool) is a European scale transport network model developed by TRT and simulating road, rail and maritime transport; the model covers the whole Europe and its neighbouring countries and it allows for the assignment of origin-destination matrices at the NUTS3 level for passenger and freight demand. The interaction between ASTRA and TRUST is implemented in a twofold way:

• ASTRA can provide TRUST with information on the evolution of road vehicle fleet composition, affecting average fuel consumption and pollutant emissions factors per vehicle, as well as trends of transport demand over time.
• TRUST can provide ASTRA with quantitative inputs in terms of variations of transport time and cost by mode (i.e. related to relevant changes on the infrastructure / supply side)

Interaction between ASTRA and TRUST models

With reference to the first linkage, TRUST can provide estimations of times and costs changes induced by relevant changes on the infrastructure / supply side, e.g. TEN infrastructures for rail and road modes. The projects are implemented in TRUST in terms of physical changes of the network, e.g. new links, increased capacity (or increased number of lanes) of road links, increased maximum allowed speed on rail links, increased capacity of nodes (e.g. ports). These physical changes generate time savings for passengers and goods moving on the European territory. On a given O-D pair, the size of time changes varies by O/D pair: it is higher for O-D pairs entirely connected by new/significantly upgraded projects while it is lower for O-D pairs outside the corridor (also outside the corridor some benefits might exist if some crossing traffic is re-routed on new/upgraded infrastructures).

A run of the TRUST model provides O-D travel times for each O-D pair. By comparing the runs with and without new projects one can measure the reduction of travel times resulting as impact of that infrastructure. At the same time, this process provides the impact on travel costs. Travel costs may change because of mainly two elements. One is different length of routes (e.g. where a new direct rail infrastructure is built). The other is pricing (e.g. if a new motorway becomes available as a faster alternative to conventional roads but at the price of tolls). When TRUST is run, both elements are taken into account.

The process is applied for both passenger and freight for rail and road modes, simulated at NUTS3 level in the TRUST model. The matrices of time and cost variations available from TRUST are then aggregated according to the geographical dimensions of the ASTRA model: short distance, national, international. The following geographical scope is implemented for transport demand, according to the level of details of the ASTRA model structure: NUTS I level for national and short distance, country level (by OD pair) for international demand.

The TRUST model is run for each five years’ thresholds in order to calculate the inputs for ASTRA for the simulation period 2015 – 2050. Then, using the quantitative input estimated in TRUST, ASTRA simulates the infrastructure scenarios and their impacts on transport and economic sectors.

With reference to the second linkage, ASTRA estimates mode split and transport demand trends, as well as road vehicle fleet composition (car and trucks). Therefore, the road matrices (for passenger and freight) used in TRUST can be modified over time in order to take into account also mode split effects: the trend of road transport demand is provided by ASTRA according to its geographical dimensions and level of details, i.e. NUTS II level for local demand, NUTS I level for national and short distance, country level (by OD pair) for international demand. Furthermore, the evolution of road vehicle fleet composition estimated by ASTRA over time can be used to modify average fuel consumption and pollutant emissions factors per vehicle by Country used as parameters in the TRUST model.

ASTRA-DE

The ASTRA-DE model is derived from the European model. Development started from the population, macro-economic and freight transport models. Further modules like passenger transport, vehicle fleets and environment are under construction.

Concentrating the model on one country enables to enrich the details of the model. The economic module in particular has been extended to cover 57 sectors instead of 25 sectors, which is coherent with the German input-output tables as only two sectors always containing zeros have been eliminated from the table with 59 sectors.

The second major change concerns the spatial representation. Instead of implementing four functional zones for Germany, the spatial structure is completely build on NUTS-II i.e. 39 zones are implemented. The population module and the freight transport modules have been the first to become implemented on the level of 39 zones. The transport modules have been restructured as well such that the number of distance bands has been reduced. The model is currently applied in two projects assessing the impacts of sustainable transport and climate friendly transport in Germany.

ASTRA-IT

The ASTRA-IT model builds on the European model, adding specific features and providing a regional break down for Italy of a group of key variables. Basically the original model is largely untouched with the exception of the zoning system used for the transport module, based on 21 NUTS2 zones. A NUTS2-based origin-destination matrix is used in the transport module, where also intra-NUTS2 trips are modelled in three different distance bands, thus providing a full coverage of mobility. Several transport parameters (e.g. transport costs) are defined at the regional level as well. The transport module can work entirely with endogenous data, but it can also exchange variables with an external network model in order to further improve the modelling of transport demand (since transport networks are not modelled in ASTRA-IT). In ASTRA-IT the regional detail is available not only for transport demand, but also for the car fleet module (where the development of regional fleets is fully simulated) and the environmental module (computing emissions) and the economic module. A working version of the model is existing and further improvements (e.g. a brand new economic model) are being experimented.

National versions